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Novorizontino U20 vs São Paulo U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Novorizontino U20
Novorizontino U20
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
São Paulo U20
São Paulo U20
Pedro Balotelli 32' (pen)
R. Francisco 14'
11/10/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · FinalEstádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Novorizontino U2046%
×Draw24%
São Paulo U2030%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novorizontino U20
1.73
São Paulo U20
1.35

Novorizontino U20 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 30 away

creates per match

Novorizontino U20
2.73
São Paulo U20
1.90

allows per match

Novorizontino U20
0.81
São Paulo U20
0.73

finishing

Novorizontino U20+0.00on par
São Paulo U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino U20 ↓

São Paulo U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Novorizontino U20 or draw
70%
Novorizontino U20 or São Paulo U20
76%
Draw or São Paulo U20
54%

Winning margin

Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+
25%
São Paulo U20 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Novorizontino U20 1+ goals
82%
Novorizontino U20 2+ goals
52%
Novorizontino U20 3+ goals
25%
São Paulo U20 1+ goals
74%
São Paulo U20 2+ goals
39%
São Paulo U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)
61%
São Paulo U20 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino U20 at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.81 · 26 matches

São Paulo U20 away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.73 + São Paulo U20 defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.73

São Paulo U20 attack 1.90 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Novorizontino U20 scores more
46%
level
24%
São Paulo U20 scores more
30%

Novorizontino U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Novorizontino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
R. Francisco
32'
Pedro BalotelliPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Novorizontino U20 1 – 1 São Paulo U20

Novorizontino U20 and São Paulo U20 drew 1-1 in Paulista - U20 on November 10, 2024.

Goals: R. Francisco (14'), Pedro Balotelli (32' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi in Novo Horizonte, São Paulo.