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Novorizontino U20 vs São José EC U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Novorizontino U20
Novorizontino U20
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
São José EC U20
São José EC U20
G. Canal 45+2'
I. Pele 17', 16'
M. Guaru 50'
7/25/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 13Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Novorizontino U2069%
×Draw17%
São José EC U2013%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novorizontino U20
2.44
São José EC U20
0.98

Novorizontino U20 creates 149% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Novorizontino U20
2.73
São José EC U20
1.15

allows per match

Novorizontino U20
0.81
São José EC U20
2.15

finishing

Novorizontino U20+0.00on par
São José EC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino U20 ↓

São José EC U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Novorizontino U20 or draw
87%
Novorizontino U20 or São José EC U20
83%
Draw or São José EC U20
31%

Winning margin

Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+
47%
São José EC U20 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Novorizontino U20 1+ goals
91%
Novorizontino U20 2+ goals
70%
Novorizontino U20 3+ goals
43%
São José EC U20 1+ goals
62%
São José EC U20 2+ goals
26%
São José EC U20 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)
84%
São José EC U20 (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino U20 at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.81 · 26 matches

São José EC U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.73 + São José EC U20 defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.44

São José EC U20 attack 1.15 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Novorizontino U20 scores more
69%
level
17%
São José EC U20 scores more
13%

Novorizontino U20 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Novorizontino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
I. Pele
17'
I. Pele
45+2'
G. Canal
50'
M. Guaru

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Novorizontino U20 3 – 1 São José EC U20

Novorizontino U20 beat São José EC U20 3-1 in Paulista - U20 on July 25, 2025.

Goals: I. Pele (16', 17'), G. Canal (45+2'), M. Guaru (50').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi in Novo Horizonte, São Paulo.