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Novorizontino U20 vs Santos U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Novorizontino U20
Novorizontino U20
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Santos U20
Santos U20
J. Santos 90+3'
Victor Gabriel 29'
Pedro Balotelli 11'
P. Fermino 42'
Enzo Boer 6'
5/24/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 5Estádio Municipal Sílvio Salles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Novorizontino U2049%
×Draw24%
Santos U2027%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novorizontino U20
1.75
Santos U20
1.24

Novorizontino U20 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 25 away

creates per match

Novorizontino U20
2.70
Santos U20
1.64

allows per match

Novorizontino U20
0.85
Santos U20
0.80

finishing

Novorizontino U20+0.00on par
Santos U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino U20 ↓

Santos U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Novorizontino U20 or draw
73%
Novorizontino U20 or Santos U20
76%
Draw or Santos U20
51%

Winning margin

Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+
27%
Santos U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Novorizontino U20 1+ goals
83%
Novorizontino U20 2+ goals
52%
Novorizontino U20 3+ goals
25%
Santos U20 1+ goals
71%
Santos U20 2+ goals
35%
Santos U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)
64%
Santos U20 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino U20 at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Santos U20 away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.70 + Santos U20 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.75

Santos U20 attack 1.64 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Novorizontino U20 scores more
49%
level
24%
Santos U20 scores more
27%

Novorizontino U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Novorizontino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
Enzo Boer
11'
Pedro Balotelli
29'
Victor Gabriel
42'
P. Fermino
90+3'
J. Santos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Novorizontino U20 vs Santos U20

Novorizontino U20 beat Santos U20 3-2 in Paulista - U20 on May 24, 2025.

Goals: Enzo Boer (6'), Pedro Balotelli (11'), Victor Gabriel (29'), P. Fermino (42'), J. Santos (90+3').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Sílvio Salles in Catanduva, São Paulo.