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Novorizontino U20 vs Mirassol U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Novorizontino U20
Novorizontino U20
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mirassol U20
Mirassol U20
Diego Galo 90+5'
L. G. Magalhaes de Freitas 52', 25'
7/4/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Novorizontino U2054%
×Draw21%
Mirassol U2025%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novorizontino U20
2.13
Mirassol U20
1.38

Novorizontino U20 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 22 away

creates per match

Novorizontino U20
2.70
Mirassol U20
1.91

allows per match

Novorizontino U20
0.85
Mirassol U20
1.55

finishing

Novorizontino U20+0.00on par
Mirassol U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 68Under: 3268%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 66No: 3466%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino U20 ↓

Mirassol U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Novorizontino U20 or draw
75%
Novorizontino U20 or Mirassol U20
79%
Draw or Mirassol U20
46%

Winning margin

Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+
33%
Mirassol U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Novorizontino U20 1+ goals
88%
Novorizontino U20 2+ goals
63%
Novorizontino U20 3+ goals
35%
Mirassol U20 1+ goals
75%
Mirassol U20 2+ goals
40%
Mirassol U20 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)
69%
Mirassol U20 (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino U20 at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Mirassol U20 away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.55 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.70 + Mirassol U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 2.13

Mirassol U20 attack 1.91 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Novorizontino U20 scores more
54%
level
21%
Mirassol U20 scores more
25%

Novorizontino U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Novorizontino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
L. G. Magalhaes de Freitas
52'
L. G. Magalhaes de Freitas
90+5'
Diego Galo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Novorizontino U20 vs Mirassol U20

Novorizontino U20 beat Mirassol U20 3-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 4, 2025.

Goals: L. G. Magalhaes de Freitas (25', 52'), Diego Galo (90+5').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi in Novo Horizonte, São Paulo.