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Novorizontino U20 vs Ibrachina U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Novorizontino U20
Novorizontino U20advanced
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ibrachina U20
Ibrachina U20
Unknown 14', 0', 0', 0', 0'
Unknown 0'
10/19/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Quarter-finalsEstádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Novorizontino U2052%
×Draw22%
Ibrachina U2026%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novorizontino U20
1.95
Ibrachina U20
1.32

Novorizontino U20 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

creates per match

Novorizontino U20
2.73
Ibrachina U20
1.83

allows per match

Novorizontino U20
0.81
Ibrachina U20
1.17

finishing

Novorizontino U20+0.00on par
Ibrachina U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 63Under: 3763%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 63No: 3763%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino U20 ↓

Ibrachina U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Novorizontino U20 or draw
74%
Novorizontino U20 or Ibrachina U20
78%
Draw or Ibrachina U20
48%

Winning margin

Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+
30%
Ibrachina U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Novorizontino U20 1+ goals
86%
Novorizontino U20 2+ goals
58%
Novorizontino U20 3+ goals
31%
Ibrachina U20 1+ goals
73%
Ibrachina U20 2+ goals
38%
Ibrachina U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)
67%
Ibrachina U20 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino U20 at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.81 · 26 matches

Ibrachina U20 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.73 + Ibrachina U20 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.95

Ibrachina U20 attack 1.83 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Novorizontino U20 scores more
52%
level
22%
Ibrachina U20 scores more
26%

Novorizontino U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Novorizontino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

0'
0'
0'
0'
0'
14'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Novorizontino U20 vs Ibrachina U20

Novorizontino U20 beat Ibrachina U20 5-1 in Paulista - U20 on October 19, 2024.

Goals: ? (0', 0', 0', 0', 0', 14').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi in Novo Horizonte, São Paulo.