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Novorizontino U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Novorizontino U20
Novorizontino U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Gremio Prudente U20
Gremio Prudente U20
Pedro Balotelli 43', 39'
L. de Almedia 81'
4/20/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Novorizontino U2058%
×Draw22%
Gremio Prudente U2021%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novorizontino U20
1.98
Gremio Prudente U20
1.09

Novorizontino U20 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 21 away

creates per match

Novorizontino U20
2.73
Gremio Prudente U20
1.38

allows per match

Novorizontino U20
0.81
Gremio Prudente U20
1.24

finishing

Novorizontino U20+0.00on par
Gremio Prudente U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino U20 ↓

Gremio Prudente U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Novorizontino U20 or draw
79%
Novorizontino U20 or Gremio Prudente U20
78%
Draw or Gremio Prudente U20
42%

Winning margin

Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+
34%
Gremio Prudente U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Novorizontino U20 1+ goals
86%
Novorizontino U20 2+ goals
59%
Novorizontino U20 3+ goals
31%
Gremio Prudente U20 1+ goals
66%
Gremio Prudente U20 2+ goals
30%
Gremio Prudente U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)
74%
Gremio Prudente U20 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino U20 at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.81 · 26 matches

Gremio Prudente U20 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.73 + Gremio Prudente U20 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.98

Gremio Prudente U20 attack 1.38 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Novorizontino U20 scores more
58%
level
22%
Gremio Prudente U20 scores more
21%

Novorizontino U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Novorizontino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
Pedro Balotelli
43'
Pedro Balotelli
81'
L. de Almedia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Novorizontino U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20

Novorizontino U20 beat Gremio Prudente U20 2-1 in Paulista - U20 on April 20, 2024.

Goals: Pedro Balotelli (39', 43'), L. de Almedia (81').

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi in Novo Horizonte, São Paulo.