Novorizontino U20 0–1 Desportivo Brasil U20

Novorizontino U20

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Desportivo Brasil U20

M. Ponciano 88'

6/5/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Novorizontino U2061%

×Draw20%

Desportivo Brasil U2019%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Novorizontino U20Expected goals in this matchDesportivo Brasil U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.12

Novorizontino U20

2.17

Desportivo Brasil U20

1.12

Novorizontino U20 creates 94% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 23 away

2.73

creates per match

1.43

0.81

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Novorizontino U20

2.73

Desportivo Brasil U20

1.43

allows per match

Novorizontino U20

0.81

Desportivo Brasil U20

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Novorizontino U20+0.00on par

Desportivo Brasil U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novorizontino U20 ↓

Desportivo Brasil U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Novorizontino U20 or draw

81%

Novorizontino U20 or Desportivo Brasil U20

80%

Draw or Desportivo Brasil U20

39%

Winning margin

Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+

38%

Desportivo Brasil U20 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Novorizontino U20 1+ goals

89%

Novorizontino U20 2+ goals

64%

Novorizontino U20 3+ goals

36%

Desportivo Brasil U20 1+ goals

67%

Desportivo Brasil U20 2+ goals

31%

Desportivo Brasil U20 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)

76%

Desportivo Brasil U20 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novorizontino U20 at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.81 · 26 matches

Desportivo Brasil U20 away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.73 + Desportivo Brasil U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.17

Desportivo Brasil U20 attack 1.43 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Novorizontino U20 scores more

61%

level

20%

Desportivo Brasil U20 scores more

19%

Novorizontino U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Novorizontino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

88'

M. Ponciano

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff