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Novohrad Lučenec vs Vranov nad Topľou — 3. liga - East 2020

Novohrad Lučenec
Novohrad Lučenec
FT
1 – 2
Vranov nad Topľou
Vranov nad Topľou
4/15/20233. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 22Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Novohrad Lučenec40%
×Draw27%
Vranov nad Topľou33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novohrad Lučenec
1.29
Vranov nad Topľou
1.15

Novohrad Lučenec creates 12% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 81 away

creates per match

Novohrad Lučenec
1.11
Vranov nad Topľou
1.14

allows per match

Novohrad Lučenec
1.16
Vranov nad Topľou
1.48

finishing

Novohrad Lučenec+0.00on par
Vranov nad Topľou+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novohrad Lučenec ↓

Vranov nad Topľou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Novohrad Lučenec or draw
67%
Novohrad Lučenec or Vranov nad Topľou
73%
Draw or Vranov nad Topľou
60%

Winning margin

Novohrad Lučenec wins by 2+
18%
Vranov nad Topľou wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Novohrad Lučenec 1+ goals
72%
Novohrad Lučenec 2+ goals
37%
Novohrad Lučenec 3+ goals
14%
Vranov nad Topľou 1+ goals
68%
Vranov nad Topľou 2+ goals
32%
Vranov nad Topľou 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Novohrad Lučenec (draw refunded)
55%
Vranov nad Topľou (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novohrad Lučenec at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Vranov nad Topľou away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.48 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novohrad Lučenec attack 1.11 + Vranov nad Topľou defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.29

Vranov nad Topľou attack 1.14 + Novohrad Lučenec defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Novohrad Lučenec scores more
40%
level
27%
Vranov nad Topľou scores more
33%

Novohrad Lučenec at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Novohrad Lučenec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Novohrad Lučenec 1–2 Vranov nad Topľou

Vranov nad Topľou beat Novohrad Lučenec 2-1 in 3. liga - East on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Lučenec.