Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Novohrad Lučenec vs Snina — 3. liga - East 2020

Novohrad Lučenec
Novohrad Lučenec
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Snina
Snina
5/13/20233. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 26Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Novohrad Lučenec42%
×Draw27%
Snina31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novohrad Lučenec
1.37
Snina
1.15

Novohrad Lučenec creates 19% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 79 away

creates per match

Novohrad Lučenec
1.11
Snina
1.15

allows per match

Novohrad Lučenec
1.16
Snina
1.63

finishing

Novohrad Lučenec+0.00on par
Snina+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novohrad Lučenec ↓

Snina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Novohrad Lučenec or draw
69%
Novohrad Lučenec or Snina
73%
Draw or Snina
58%

Winning margin

Novohrad Lučenec wins by 2+
20%
Snina wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Novohrad Lučenec 1+ goals
75%
Novohrad Lučenec 2+ goals
40%
Novohrad Lučenec 3+ goals
16%
Snina 1+ goals
68%
Snina 2+ goals
32%
Snina 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Novohrad Lučenec (draw refunded)
57%
Snina (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novohrad Lučenec at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Snina away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.63 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novohrad Lučenec attack 1.11 + Snina defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.37

Snina attack 1.15 + Novohrad Lučenec defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Novohrad Lučenec scores more
42%
level
27%
Snina scores more
31%

Novohrad Lučenec at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Novohrad Lučenec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Novohrad Lučenec 0–1 Snina

Snina beat Novohrad Lučenec 1-0 in 3. liga - East on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Lučenec.