Novo Hamburgo 0–0 Brasil DE Pelotas: Result & Stats

Novo Hamburgo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Brasil DE Pelotas

5/21/2023

Serie D · 1st Phase - 3Estádio do Vale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Novo Hamburgo41%

×Draw28%

Brasil DE Pelotas31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Novo HamburgoExpected goals in this matchBrasil DE Pelotas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.08

Novo Hamburgo

1.29

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.08

Novo Hamburgo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 29 away

1.26

creates per match

0.69

1.47

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Novo Hamburgo

1.26

Brasil DE Pelotas

0.69

allows per match

Novo Hamburgo

1.47

Brasil DE Pelotas

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Novo Hamburgo+0.00on par

Brasil DE Pelotas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novo Hamburgo ↓

Brasil DE Pelotas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Novo Hamburgo or draw

69%

Novo Hamburgo or Brasil DE Pelotas

72%

Draw or Brasil DE Pelotas

59%

Winning margin

Novo Hamburgo wins by 2+

19%

Brasil DE Pelotas wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Novo Hamburgo 1+ goals

72%

Novo Hamburgo 2+ goals

37%

Novo Hamburgo 3+ goals

14%

Brasil DE Pelotas 1+ goals

66%

Brasil DE Pelotas 2+ goals

29%

Brasil DE Pelotas 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Novo Hamburgo (draw refunded)

57%

Brasil DE Pelotas (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novo Hamburgo at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Brasil DE Pelotas away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novo Hamburgo attack 1.26 + Brasil DE Pelotas defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Brasil DE Pelotas attack 0.69 + Novo Hamburgo defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Novo Hamburgo scores more

41%

level

28%

Brasil DE Pelotas scores more

31%

Novo Hamburgo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Novo Hamburgo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff