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Novigrad vs Jadran Poreč — League #213 2026

Novigrad
Novigrad
FT
1 – 3
Jadran Poreč
Jadran Poreč
5/15/2021League #213League #213 · West - 23Stadion Lako

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Novigrad28%
×Draw20%
Jadran Poreč52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novigrad
1.63
Jadran Poreč
2.29

Jadran Poreč creates 40% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Novigrad
1.45
Jadran Poreč
2.40

allows per match

Novigrad
2.18
Jadran Poreč
1.80

finishing

Novigrad+0.00on par
Jadran Poreč+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novigrad ↓

Jadran Poreč →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Novigrad or draw
48%
Novigrad or Jadran Poreč
80%
Draw or Jadran Poreč
72%

Winning margin

Novigrad wins by 2+
13%
Jadran Poreč wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Novigrad 1+ goals
80%
Novigrad 2+ goals
48%
Novigrad 3+ goals
22%
Jadran Poreč 1+ goals
90%
Jadran Poreč 2+ goals
66%
Jadran Poreč 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Novigrad (draw refunded)
34%
Jadran Poreč (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novigrad at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

Jadran Poreč away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novigrad attack 1.45 + Jadran Poreč defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.63

Jadran Poreč attack 2.40 + Novigrad defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Novigrad scores more
28%
level
20%
Jadran Poreč scores more
52%

Jadran Poreč at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Jadran Poreč will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Novigrad vs Jadran Poreč

Jadran Poreč beat Novigrad 3-1 in League #213 on May 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Lako in Novigrad.