Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Novigrad vs Grobničan Čavle — League #213 2026

Novigrad
Novigrad
CANC
00:00
Grobničan Čavle
Grobničan Čavle
3/21/2020League #213League #213 · West - 18Stadion Lako

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Novigrad32%
×Draw22%
Grobničan Čavle46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novigrad
1.56
Grobničan Čavle
1.93

Grobničan Čavle creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Novigrad
1.45
Grobničan Čavle
1.67

allows per match

Novigrad
2.18
Grobničan Čavle
1.67

finishing

Novigrad+0.00on par
Grobničan Čavle+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novigrad ↓

Grobničan Čavle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Novigrad or draw
54%
Novigrad or Grobničan Čavle
78%
Draw or Grobničan Čavle
68%

Winning margin

Novigrad wins by 2+
15%
Grobničan Čavle wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Novigrad 1+ goals
79%
Novigrad 2+ goals
46%
Novigrad 3+ goals
21%
Grobničan Čavle 1+ goals
85%
Grobničan Čavle 2+ goals
57%
Grobničan Čavle 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Novigrad (draw refunded)
40%
Grobničan Čavle (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novigrad at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

Grobničan Čavle away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novigrad attack 1.45 + Grobničan Čavle defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.56

Grobničan Čavle attack 1.67 + Novigrad defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Novigrad scores more
32%
level
22%
Grobničan Čavle scores more
46%

Grobničan Čavle at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Grobničan Čavle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Novigrad face Grobničan Čavle (League #213)

League #213 returns with Novigrad hosting Grobničan Čavle. Match starts March 21, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Novigrad host Grobničan Čavle at Stadion Lako.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.