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Novigrad vs Buje — League #213 2026

Novigrad
Novigrad
CANC
14:30
Buje
Buje
9/24/2022League #213League #213 · West - 5Stadion Lako

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Novigrad41%
×Draw24%
Buje35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novigrad
1.56
Buje
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

creates per match

Novigrad
1.45
Buje
0.67

allows per match

Novigrad
2.18
Buje
1.67

finishing

Novigrad+0.00on par
Buje+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novigrad ↓

Buje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Novigrad or draw
65%
Novigrad or Buje
76%
Draw or Buje
59%

Winning margin

Novigrad wins by 2+
20%
Buje wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Novigrad 1+ goals
79%
Novigrad 2+ goals
46%
Novigrad 3+ goals
21%
Buje 1+ goals
76%
Buje 2+ goals
42%
Buje 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Novigrad (draw refunded)
54%
Buje (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novigrad at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

Buje away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novigrad attack 1.45 + Buje defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.56

Buje attack 0.67 + Novigrad defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Novigrad scores more
41%
level
24%
Buje scores more
35%

Novigrad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Novigrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Novigrad host Buje

September 24, 2022: Novigrad take on Buje in League #213. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Novigrad host Buje at Stadion Lako.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.