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Novi Pazar vs Železničar Pančevo — Super Liga 2026

Novi Pazar
Novi Pazar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Železničar Pančevo
Železničar Pančevo
3/17/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 28Caizcoin Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Novi Pazar43%
×Draw26%
Železničar Pančevo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novi Pazar
1.48
Železničar Pančevo
1.21

Novi Pazar creates 22% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 57 away

creates per match

Novi Pazar
1.44
Železničar Pančevo
1.12

allows per match

Novi Pazar
1.30
Železničar Pančevo
1.51

finishing

Novi Pazar+0.00on par
Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novi Pazar ↓

Železničar Pančevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Novi Pazar or draw
69%
Novi Pazar or Železničar Pančevo
74%
Draw or Železničar Pančevo
57%

Winning margin

Novi Pazar wins by 2+
21%
Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Novi Pazar 1+ goals
77%
Novi Pazar 2+ goals
43%
Novi Pazar 3+ goals
19%
Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals
70%
Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals
34%
Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
58%
Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.30 · 112 matches

Železničar Pančevo away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.51 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novi Pazar attack 1.44 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.12 + Novi Pazar defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Novi Pazar scores more
43%
level
26%
Železničar Pančevo scores more
31%

Novi Pazar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Novi Pazar 3–1 Železničar Pančevo

Novi Pazar beat Železničar Pančevo 3-1 in Super Liga on March 17, 2025.

The match was played at Caizcoin Arena in Novi Pazar.