Novi Pazar vs TSC Backa Topola — Super Liga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 7+ matches
Novi Pazar41%
TSC Backa Topola33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Novi Pazar creates 15% more chances
Season form · 7 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Novi Pazar ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches
TSC Backa Topola away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.54 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Novi Pazar attack 1.22 + TSC Backa Topola defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38
TSC Backa Topola attack 1.45 + Novi Pazar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.20
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Novi Pazar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
FK Crvena Zvezda
Radnicki NIS
FK Partizan
Cukaricki
Mladost Lucani
Napredak
Vojvodina
Proleter Novi SAD
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Radnik Surdulica
FK Vozdovac
Macva
Backa
RAD
Dinamo Vranje
ZemunIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Novi Pazar host TSC Backa Topola on Monday, 24 February 2025 at 15:30. The match is part of the Super Liga 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Novi Pazar vs TSC Backa Topola
Novi Pazar beat TSC Backa Topola 2-1 in Super Liga on February 24, 2025.
Goals: P. Mboungou (51'), A. Cissé (75'), R. Antwi (76').
Novi Pazar controlled possession (50%) and registered 13 shots to 10.
The match was played at Caizcoin Arena in Novi Pazar.