Novi Pazar 1–0 Rudar Velenje: Result & Stats

Novi Pazar

FT

1 – 0

Rudar Velenje

7/10/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Novi Pazar71%

×Draw19%

Rudar Velenje11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Novi PazarExpected goals in this matchRudar Velenje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

0.69

Novi Pazar

2.14

Rudar Velenje

0.69

Novi Pazar creates 210% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.10

creates per match

0.18

1.20

allows per match

3.18

creates per match

Novi Pazar

1.10

Rudar Velenje

0.18

allows per match

Novi Pazar

1.20

Rudar Velenje

3.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Rudar Velenje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novi Pazar ↓

Rudar Velenje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Novi Pazar or draw

89%

Novi Pazar or Rudar Velenje

81%

Draw or Rudar Velenje

29%

Winning margin

Novi Pazar wins by 2+

46%

Rudar Velenje wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Novi Pazar 1+ goals

88%

Novi Pazar 2+ goals

63%

Novi Pazar 3+ goals

36%

Rudar Velenje 1+ goals

50%

Rudar Velenje 2+ goals

15%

Rudar Velenje 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Novi Pazar (draw refunded)

87%

Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Rudar Velenje away — creates 0.18, concedes 3.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novi Pazar attack 1.10 + Rudar Velenje defence 3.18 → ÷2 → 2.14

Rudar Velenje attack 0.18 + Novi Pazar defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Novi Pazar scores more

71%

level

19%

Rudar Velenje scores more

11%

Novi Pazar at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff