Novi Pazar 0–1 Radnik Surdulica: Result & Stats

Novi Pazar

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Radnik Surdulica

M. Novakovic 43' (pen)

7/9/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Novi Pazar39%

×Draw27%

Radnik Surdulica34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Novi PazarExpected goals in this matchRadnik Surdulica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.21

Novi Pazar

1.31

Radnik Surdulica

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

1.45

creates per match

1.33

1.09

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Novi Pazar

1.45

Radnik Surdulica

1.33

allows per match

Novi Pazar

1.09

Radnik Surdulica

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Radnik Surdulica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novi Pazar ↓

Radnik Surdulica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Novi Pazar or draw

66%

Novi Pazar or Radnik Surdulica

73%

Draw or Radnik Surdulica

61%

Winning margin

Novi Pazar wins by 2+

18%

Radnik Surdulica wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Novi Pazar 1+ goals

73%

Novi Pazar 2+ goals

38%

Novi Pazar 3+ goals

14%

Radnik Surdulica 1+ goals

70%

Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals

34%

Radnik Surdulica 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Novi Pazar (draw refunded)

53%

Radnik Surdulica (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Radnik Surdulica away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novi Pazar attack 1.45 + Radnik Surdulica defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.31

Radnik Surdulica attack 1.33 + Novi Pazar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Novi Pazar scores more

39%

level

27%

Radnik Surdulica scores more

34%

Novi Pazar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

M. NovakovicPenalty

Novi

Radnik

Manager: Strahinja Pandurovic

Manager: Dusan Djordjevic