Novi Pazar vs Proleter Novi SAD — Super Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 72+ matches
Novi Pazar47%
Proleter Novi SAD27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Novi Pazar creates 42% more chances
Season form · 111 home / 72 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Novi Pazar ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches
Proleter Novi SAD away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 72 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Novi Pazar attack 1.44 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50
Proleter Novi SAD attack 0.81 + Novi Pazar defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.06
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Novi Pazar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Novi Pazar substitutes
FK Crvena Zvezda
Radnicki NIS
FK Partizan
Cukaricki
Mladost Lucani
Napredak
VojvodinaProleter Novi SAD
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Radnik Surdulica
FK Vozdovac
Macva
Backa
RAD
Dinamo Vranje
ZemunIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Novi Pazar host Proleter Novi SAD on Sunday, 21 March 2021 at 14:00. The match is part of the Super Liga 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Novi Pazar vs Proleter Novi SAD
Novi Pazar beat Proleter Novi SAD 5-0 in Super Liga on March 21, 2021.
Goals: D. Kiković (8'), P. Pešukić (22'), B. Tomić (27'), A. Aganspahić (52'), D. Stoiljković (54').
The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Novi Pazar.