Novi Pazar 2–0 Napredak: Result & Stats

Novi Pazar

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Napredak

3/3/2025

Super Liga · Round 26Caizcoin Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Novi Pazar48%

×Draw25%

Napredak26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Novi PazarExpected goals in this matchNapredak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.08

Novi Pazar

1.55

Napredak

1.08

Novi Pazar creates 44% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 147 away

1.44

creates per match

0.84

1.32

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Novi Pazar

1.44

Napredak

0.84

allows per match

Novi Pazar

1.32

Napredak

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Napredak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novi Pazar ↓

Napredak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Novi Pazar or draw

74%

Novi Pazar or Napredak

75%

Draw or Napredak

52%

Winning margin

Novi Pazar wins by 2+

25%

Napredak wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Novi Pazar 1+ goals

79%

Novi Pazar 2+ goals

46%

Novi Pazar 3+ goals

20%

Napredak 1+ goals

66%

Napredak 2+ goals

29%

Napredak 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Novi Pazar (draw refunded)

65%

Napredak (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

Napredak away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.66 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novi Pazar attack 1.44 + Napredak defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.55

Napredak attack 0.84 + Novi Pazar defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Novi Pazar scores more

48%

level

25%

Napredak scores more

26%

Novi Pazar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff