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Novi Pazar vs FK Vozdovac — Super Liga 2026

Novi Pazar
Novi Pazar
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FK Vozdovac
FK Vozdovac
3/12/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 25Caizcoin Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Novi Pazar47%
×Draw25%
FK Vozdovac27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novi Pazar
1.54
FK Vozdovac
1.10

Novi Pazar creates 40% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 109 away

creates per match

Novi Pazar
1.44
FK Vozdovac
0.89

allows per match

Novi Pazar
1.32
FK Vozdovac
1.65

finishing

Novi Pazar+0.00on par
FK Vozdovac+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novi Pazar ↓

FK Vozdovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Novi Pazar or draw
73%
Novi Pazar or FK Vozdovac
75%
Draw or FK Vozdovac
53%

Winning margin

Novi Pazar wins by 2+
24%
FK Vozdovac wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Novi Pazar 1+ goals
79%
Novi Pazar 2+ goals
45%
Novi Pazar 3+ goals
20%
FK Vozdovac 1+ goals
67%
FK Vozdovac 2+ goals
30%
FK Vozdovac 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
64%
FK Vozdovac (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

FK Vozdovac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novi Pazar attack 1.44 + FK Vozdovac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.54

FK Vozdovac attack 0.89 + Novi Pazar defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Novi Pazar scores more
47%
level
25%
FK Vozdovac scores more
27%

Novi Pazar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Novi Pazar vs FK Vozdovac

Novi Pazar and FK Vozdovac drew 2-2 in Super Liga on March 12, 2024.

The match was played at Caizcoin Arena in Novi Pazar.