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Novi Pazar vs FK Becej — Prva Liga 2018

Novi Pazar
Novi Pazar
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
FK Becej
FK Becej
10/31/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 14Gradski Stadion (Novi Pazar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Novi Pazar44%
×Draw29%
FK Becej28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novi Pazar
1.27
FK Becej
0.95

Novi Pazar creates 34% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 18 away

creates per match

Novi Pazar
1.27
FK Becej
0.83

allows per match

Novi Pazar
1.06
FK Becej
1.28

finishing

Novi Pazar+0.00on par
FK Becej+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novi Pazar ↓

FK Becej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Novi Pazar or draw
72%
Novi Pazar or FK Becej
71%
Draw or FK Becej
56%

Winning margin

Novi Pazar wins by 2+
20%
FK Becej wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Novi Pazar 1+ goals
72%
Novi Pazar 2+ goals
36%
Novi Pazar 3+ goals
14%
FK Becej 1+ goals
61%
FK Becej 2+ goals
25%
FK Becej 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
61%
FK Becej (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

FK Becej away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novi Pazar attack 1.27 + FK Becej defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

FK Becej attack 0.83 + Novi Pazar defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Novi Pazar scores more
44%
level
29%
FK Becej scores more
28%

Novi Pazar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Novi Pazar vs FK Becej

FK Becej beat Novi Pazar 4-0 in Prva Liga on October 31, 2018.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion (Novi Pazar).