Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Novi Pazar vs Akhmat — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Novi Pazar
Novi Pazar
FT
3 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Akhmat
Akhmat
1/16/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Hotel Spice Sport Complex - artificial grass

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Novi Pazar39%
×Draw27%
Akhmat34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novi Pazar
1.29
Akhmat
1.17

Novi Pazar creates 10% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Novi Pazar
1.45
Akhmat
1.25

allows per match

Novi Pazar
1.09
Akhmat
1.13

finishing

Novi Pazar+0.00on par
Akhmat+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novi Pazar ↓

Akhmat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Novi Pazar or draw
66%
Novi Pazar or Akhmat
73%
Draw or Akhmat
61%

Winning margin

Novi Pazar wins by 2+
18%
Akhmat wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Novi Pazar 1+ goals
72%
Novi Pazar 2+ goals
37%
Novi Pazar 3+ goals
14%
Akhmat 1+ goals
69%
Akhmat 2+ goals
33%
Akhmat 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
54%
Akhmat (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Akhmat away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novi Pazar attack 1.45 + Akhmat defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Akhmat attack 1.25 + Novi Pazar defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Novi Pazar scores more
39%
level
27%
Akhmat scores more
34%

Novi Pazar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Novi Pazar 3–5 Akhmat

Akhmat beat Novi Pazar 5-3 in Friendlies Clubs on January 16, 2025.

The match was played at Hotel Spice Sport Complex - artificial grass in Lara.