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Novelda vs Saguntino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Novelda
Novelda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Saguntino
Saguntino
3/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 28Estadio La Magdalena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Novelda36%
×Draw29%
Saguntino35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novelda
1.13
Saguntino
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 80 away

creates per match

Novelda
1.17
Saguntino
1.18

allows per match

Novelda
1.03
Saguntino
1.09

finishing

Novelda+0.00on par
Saguntino+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novelda ↓

Saguntino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Novelda or draw
65%
Novelda or Saguntino
71%
Draw or Saguntino
64%

Winning margin

Novelda wins by 2+
15%
Saguntino wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Novelda 1+ goals
68%
Novelda 2+ goals
31%
Novelda 3+ goals
11%
Saguntino 1+ goals
67%
Saguntino 2+ goals
30%
Saguntino 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Novelda (draw refunded)
51%
Saguntino (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novelda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Saguntino away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novelda attack 1.17 + Saguntino defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Saguntino attack 1.18 + Novelda defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Novelda scores more
36%
level
29%
Saguntino scores more
35%

Novelda at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Novelda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Novelda vs Saguntino

Novelda and Saguntino drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Magdalena in Novelda.