Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Novelda vs Olímpic Xàtiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Novelda
Novelda
CANC
22:00
Olímpic Xàtiva
Olímpic Xàtiva
5/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 37Estadio La Magdalena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Novelda46%
×Draw29%
Olímpic Xàtiva25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novelda
1.29
Olímpic Xàtiva
0.88

Novelda creates 47% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 44 away

creates per match

Novelda
1.17
Olímpic Xàtiva
0.73

allows per match

Novelda
1.03
Olímpic Xàtiva
1.41

finishing

Novelda+0.00on par
Olímpic Xàtiva+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novelda ↓

Olímpic Xàtiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Novelda or draw
75%
Novelda or Olímpic Xàtiva
71%
Draw or Olímpic Xàtiva
54%

Winning margin

Novelda wins by 2+
21%
Olímpic Xàtiva wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Novelda 1+ goals
72%
Novelda 2+ goals
37%
Novelda 3+ goals
14%
Olímpic Xàtiva 1+ goals
59%
Olímpic Xàtiva 2+ goals
22%
Olímpic Xàtiva 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Novelda (draw refunded)
64%
Olímpic Xàtiva (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novelda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Olímpic Xàtiva away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novelda attack 1.17 + Olímpic Xàtiva defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Olímpic Xàtiva attack 0.73 + Novelda defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Novelda scores more
46%
level
29%
Olímpic Xàtiva scores more
25%

Novelda at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Novelda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Novelda host Olímpic Xàtiva

May 9, 2020: Novelda take on Olímpic Xàtiva in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Novelda host Olímpic Xàtiva at Estadio La Magdalena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.