Novelda 1–1 Elche II: Result & Stats

Novelda

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Elche II

3/7/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 16Estadio La Magdalena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Novelda34%

×Draw29%

Elche II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NoveldaExpected goals in this matchElche II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.14

Novelda

1.09

Elche II

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 77 away

1.17

creates per match

1.25

1.03

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Novelda

1.17

Elche II

1.25

allows per match

Novelda

1.03

Elche II

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Novelda+0.00on par

Elche II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novelda ↓

Elche II →

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Novelda or draw

63%

Novelda or Elche II

71%

Draw or Elche II

66%

Winning margin

Novelda wins by 2+

14%

Elche II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Novelda 1+ goals

66%

Novelda 2+ goals

30%

Novelda 3+ goals

10%

Elche II 1+ goals

68%

Elche II 2+ goals

32%

Elche II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Novelda (draw refunded)

48%

Elche II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Novelda at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.03 · 29 matches

Elche II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Novelda attack 1.17 + Elche II defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Elche II attack 1.25 + Novelda defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Novelda scores more

34%

level

29%

Elche II scores more

37%

Elche II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff