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Nové Zámky W vs Žilina W — I Liga - Women 2020

Nové Zámky W
Nové Zámky W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Žilina W
Žilina W
K. Andruskova 83'
K. Palova 48'
5/15/2022I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Championship Round - 8Tréningové centrum FC Union Nové Zámky pri Radave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Nové Zámky W46%
×Draw20%
Žilina W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nové Zámky W
2.41
Žilina W
2.09

Nové Zámky W creates 15% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 68 away

creates per match

Nové Zámky W
1.31
Žilina W
1.19

allows per match

Nové Zámky W
3.00
Žilina W
3.51

finishing

Nové Zámky W+0.00on par
Žilina W+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Zámky W ↓

Žilina W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Nové Zámky W or draw
65%
Nové Zámky W or Žilina W
80%
Draw or Žilina W
54%

Winning margin

Nové Zámky W wins by 2+
27%
Žilina W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Nové Zámky W 1+ goals
91%
Nové Zámky W 2+ goals
69%
Nové Zámky W 3+ goals
43%
Žilina W 1+ goals
88%
Žilina W 2+ goals
62%
Žilina W 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Nové Zámky W (draw refunded)
57%
Žilina W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Zámky W at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 26 matches

Žilina W away — creates 1.19, concedes 3.51 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Zámky W attack 1.31 + Žilina W defence 3.51 → ÷2 → 2.41

Žilina W attack 1.19 + Nové Zámky W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nové Zámky W scores more
46%
level
20%
Žilina W scores more
35%

Nové Zámky W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nové Zámky W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'
K. Palova
83'
K. Andruskova

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nové Zámky W vs Žilina W

Nové Zámky W beat Žilina W 2-0 in I Liga - Women on May 15, 2022.

Goals: K. Palova (48'), K. Andruskova (83').

The match was played at Tréningové centrum FC Union Nové Zámky pri Radave in Hul.