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Nové Zámky W vs Spartak Myjava W — I Liga - Women 2020

Nové Zámky W
Nové Zámky W
FT
0 – 1
Spartak Myjava W
Spartak Myjava W
Z. N. Narozna 31'
11/17/2021I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 12Tréningové centrum FC Union Nové Zámky pri Radave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Nové Zámky W7%
×Draw10%
Spartak Myjava W83%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nové Zámky W
1.00
Spartak Myjava W
3.60

Spartak Myjava W creates 260% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 67 away

creates per match

Nové Zámky W
1.31
Spartak Myjava W
4.19

allows per match

Nové Zámky W
3.00
Spartak Myjava W
0.70

finishing

Nové Zámky W+0.00on par
Spartak Myjava W+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Zámky W ↓

Spartak Myjava W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–38%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Nové Zámky W or draw
17%
Nové Zámky W or Spartak Myjava W
90%
Draw or Spartak Myjava W
93%

Winning margin

Nové Zámky W wins by 2+
2%
Spartak Myjava W wins by 2+
66%

Team goals

Nové Zámky W 1+ goals
63%
Nové Zámky W 2+ goals
26%
Nové Zámky W 3+ goals
8%
Spartak Myjava W 1+ goals
97%
Spartak Myjava W 2+ goals
86%
Spartak Myjava W 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

Nové Zámky W (draw refunded)
7%
Spartak Myjava W (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Zámky W at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 26 matches

Spartak Myjava W away — creates 4.19, concedes 0.70 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Zámky W attack 1.31 + Spartak Myjava W defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.00

Spartak Myjava W attack 4.19 + Nové Zámky W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Nové Zámky W scores more
7%
level
10%
Spartak Myjava W scores more
83%

Spartak Myjava W at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Spartak Myjava W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
Z. N. Narozna

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nové Zámky W vs Spartak Myjava W

Spartak Myjava W beat Nové Zámky W 1-0 in I Liga - Women on November 17, 2021.

Goals: Z. N. Narozna (31').

The match was played at Tréningové centrum FC Union Nové Zámky pri Radave in Hul.