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Nové Zámky W vs Petržalka W — I Liga - Women 2020

Nové Zámky W
Nové Zámky W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Petržalka W
Petržalka W
K. Andruskova 82'
I. Bukovicova 35'
V. Vraukoova 30'
3/19/2022I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 18Tréningové centrum FC Union Nové Zámky pri Radave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Nové Zámky W36%
×Draw20%
Petržalka W44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nové Zámky W
1.98
Petržalka W
2.19

Petržalka W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 69 away

creates per match

Nové Zámky W
1.31
Petržalka W
1.38

allows per match

Nové Zámky W
3.00
Petržalka W
2.65

finishing

Nové Zámky W+0.00on par
Petržalka W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Zámky W ↓

Petržalka W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Nové Zámky W or draw
56%
Nové Zámky W or Petržalka W
80%
Draw or Petržalka W
64%

Winning margin

Nové Zámky W wins by 2+
19%
Petržalka W wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Nové Zámky W 1+ goals
86%
Nové Zámky W 2+ goals
59%
Nové Zámky W 3+ goals
31%
Petržalka W 1+ goals
89%
Petržalka W 2+ goals
64%
Petržalka W 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Nové Zámky W (draw refunded)
45%
Petržalka W (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Zámky W at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 26 matches

Petržalka W away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.65 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Zámky W attack 1.31 + Petržalka W defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.98

Petržalka W attack 1.38 + Nové Zámky W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nové Zámky W scores more
36%
level
20%
Petržalka W scores more
44%

Petržalka W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Petržalka W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
V. Vraukoova
35'
I. Bukovicova
82'
K. Andruskova

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nové Zámky W vs Petržalka W

Nové Zámky W beat Petržalka W 3-0 in I Liga - Women on March 19, 2022.

Goals: V. Vraukoova (30'), I. Bukovicova (35'), K. Andruskova (82').

The match was played at Tréningové centrum FC Union Nové Zámky pri Radave in Hul.