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Nové Zámky W vs Nitra W — I Liga - Women 2020

Nové Zámky W
Nové Zámky W
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Nitra W
Nitra W
V. Vraukoova 75', 50', 35'
S. Jelencicova 7'
L. Mazuchova 85', 28'
2/20/2022I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 14Tréningové centrum FC Union Nové Zámky pri Radave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nové Zámky W37%
×Draw19%
Nitra W43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nové Zámky W
2.22
Nitra W
2.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nové Zámky W
1.31
Nitra W
1.80

allows per match

Nové Zámky W
3.00
Nitra W
3.13

finishing

Nové Zámky W+0.00on par
Nitra W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Zámky W ↓

Nitra W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Nové Zámky W or draw
57%
Nové Zámky W or Nitra W
81%
Draw or Nitra W
63%

Winning margin

Nové Zámky W wins by 2+
21%
Nitra W wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Nové Zámky W 1+ goals
89%
Nové Zámky W 2+ goals
65%
Nové Zámky W 3+ goals
38%
Nitra W 1+ goals
91%
Nitra W 2+ goals
69%
Nitra W 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Nové Zámky W (draw refunded)
46%
Nitra W (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Zámky W at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 26 matches

Nitra W away — creates 1.80, concedes 3.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Zámky W attack 1.31 + Nitra W defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.22

Nitra W attack 1.80 + Nové Zámky W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nové Zámky W scores more
37%
level
19%
Nitra W scores more
43%

Nitra W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nitra W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
S. Jelencicova
28'
L. Mazuchova
35'
V. Vraukoova
50'
V. Vraukoova
75'
V. Vraukoova
85'
L. Mazuchova

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga - Women: Nové Zámky W 4–2 Nitra W

Nové Zámky W beat Nitra W 4-2 in I Liga - Women on February 20, 2022.

Goals: S. Jelencicova (7'), L. Mazuchova (28', 85'), V. Vraukoova (35', 50', 75').

The match was played at Tréningové centrum FC Union Nové Zámky pri Radave in Hul.