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Nové Zámky W vs GFC Topoľčany W — I Liga - Women 2020

Nové Zámky W
Nové Zámky W
FT
1 – 7
GFC Topoľčany W
GFC Topoľčany W
3/4/2023I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 16Tréningové centrum FC Union Nové Zámky pri Radave

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Nové Zámky W50%
×Draw19%
GFC Topoľčany W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nové Zámky W
2.66
GFC Topoľčany W
2.09

Nové Zámky W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Nové Zámky W
1.31
GFC Topoľčany W
1.19

allows per match

Nové Zámky W
3.00
GFC Topoľčany W
4.00

finishing

Nové Zámky W+0.00on par
GFC Topoľčany W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Zámky W ↓

GFC Topoľčany W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Nové Zámky W or draw
69%
Nové Zámky W or GFC Topoľčany W
81%
Draw or GFC Topoľčany W
50%

Winning margin

Nové Zámky W wins by 2+
32%
GFC Topoľčany W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nové Zámky W 1+ goals
93%
Nové Zámky W 2+ goals
74%
Nové Zámky W 3+ goals
49%
GFC Topoľčany W 1+ goals
88%
GFC Topoľčany W 2+ goals
62%
GFC Topoľčany W 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Nové Zámky W (draw refunded)
62%
GFC Topoľčany W (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Zámky W at home — creates 1.31, concedes 3.00 · 26 matches

GFC Topoľčany W away — creates 1.19, concedes 4.00 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Zámky W attack 1.31 + GFC Topoľčany W defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.66

GFC Topoľčany W attack 1.19 + Nové Zámky W defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nové Zámky W scores more
50%
level
19%
GFC Topoľčany W scores more
31%

Nové Zámky W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nové Zámky W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga - Women: Nové Zámky W 1–7 GFC Topoľčany W

GFC Topoľčany W beat Nové Zámky W 7-1 in I Liga - Women on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Tréningové centrum FC Union Nové Zámky pri Radave in Hul.