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Nové Zámky vs Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II — 3. liga - West 2020

Nové Zámky
Nové Zámky
CANC
14:30
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
5/2/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 23Štadión Ladislava Gancznera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Nové Zámky57%
×Draw21%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nové Zámky
2.04
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
1.20

Nové Zámky creates 70% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 25 away

creates per match

Nové Zámky
1.51
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
0.72

allows per match

Nové Zámky
1.68
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
2.56

finishing

Nové Zámky+0.00on par
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Zámky ↓

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Nové Zámky or draw
78%
Nové Zámky or Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
79%
Draw or Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
43%

Winning margin

Nové Zámky wins by 2+
34%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nové Zámky 1+ goals
87%
Nové Zámky 2+ goals
60%
Nové Zámky 3+ goals
33%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 1+ goals
70%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 2+ goals
34%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nové Zámky (draw refunded)
72%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Zámky at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.68 · 68 matches

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.56 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Zámky attack 1.51 + Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.04

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II attack 0.72 + Nové Zámky defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nové Zámky scores more
57%
level
21%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II scores more
22%

Nové Zámky at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nové Zámky will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nové Zámky vs Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II — Match Preview

Nové Zámky face Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II on May 2, 2021 in this 3. liga - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Nové Zámky host Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II at Štadión Ladislava Gancznera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.