Nové Zámky 2–1 Vrakuňa: Result & Stats

Nové Zámky

FT

2 – 1

Vrakuňa

9/17/2022

3. liga - West · West - 7Štadión Ladislava Gancznera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nové Zámky71%

×Draw15%

Vrakuňa13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nové ZámkyExpected goals in this matchVrakuňa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

1.21

Nové Zámky

2.92

Vrakuňa

1.21

Nové Zámky creates 141% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 15 away

1.51

creates per match

0.73

1.68

allows per match

4.33

creates per match

Nové Zámky

1.51

Vrakuňa

0.73

allows per match

Nové Zámky

1.68

Vrakuňa

4.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nové Zámky+0.00on par

Vrakuňa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Zámky ↓

Vrakuňa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Nové Zámky or draw

87%

Nové Zámky or Vrakuňa

85%

Draw or Vrakuňa

29%

Winning margin

Nové Zámky wins by 2+

51%

Vrakuňa wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Nové Zámky 1+ goals

94%

Nové Zámky 2+ goals

78%

Nové Zámky 3+ goals

55%

Vrakuňa 1+ goals

70%

Vrakuňa 2+ goals

34%

Vrakuňa 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nové Zámky (draw refunded)

84%

Vrakuňa (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Zámky at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.68 · 68 matches

Vrakuňa away — creates 0.73, concedes 4.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Zámky attack 1.51 + Vrakuňa defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 2.92

Vrakuňa attack 0.73 + Nové Zámky defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Nové Zámky scores more

71%

level

15%

Vrakuňa scores more

13%

Nové Zámky at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Nové Zámky will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff