Nové Sady 3–1 Kostelec na Hané: Result & Stats

Nové Sady

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Kostelec na Hané

9/30/2023

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 9Stadion FK Nové Sady

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nové Sady55%

×Draw22%

Kostelec na Hané23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nové SadyExpected goals in this matchKostelec na Hané

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.20

Nové Sady

1.96

Kostelec na Hané

1.20

Nové Sady creates 63% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 15 away

1.80

creates per match

0.93

1.46

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Nové Sady

1.80

Kostelec na Hané

0.93

allows per match

Nové Sady

1.46

Kostelec na Hané

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nové Sady+0.00on par

Kostelec na Hané+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Sady ↓

Kostelec na Hané →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Nové Sady or draw

77%

Nové Sady or Kostelec na Hané

78%

Draw or Kostelec na Hané

45%

Winning margin

Nové Sady wins by 2+

32%

Kostelec na Hané wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nové Sady 1+ goals

86%

Nové Sady 2+ goals

58%

Nové Sady 3+ goals

31%

Kostelec na Hané 1+ goals

70%

Kostelec na Hané 2+ goals

34%

Kostelec na Hané 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Nové Sady (draw refunded)

70%

Kostelec na Hané (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Sady at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.46 · 82 matches

Kostelec na Hané away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Sady attack 1.80 + Kostelec na Hané defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.96

Kostelec na Hané attack 0.93 + Nové Sady defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nové Sady scores more

55%

level

22%

Kostelec na Hané scores more

23%

Nové Sady at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nové Sady will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff