Nové Sady 1–1 Baťov: Result & Stats

Nové Sady

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Baťov

4/18/2025

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 22Stadion FK Nové Sady

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Nové Sady52%

×Draw22%

Baťov26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nové SadyExpected goals in this matchBaťov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.31

Nové Sady

1.96

Baťov

1.31

Nové Sady creates 50% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 56 away

1.80

creates per match

1.16

1.46

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Nové Sady

1.80

Baťov

1.16

allows per match

Nové Sady

1.46

Baťov

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nové Sady+0.00on par

Baťov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Sady ↓

Baťov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Nové Sady or draw

74%

Nové Sady or Baťov

78%

Draw or Baťov

48%

Winning margin

Nové Sady wins by 2+

30%

Baťov wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Nové Sady 1+ goals

86%

Nové Sady 2+ goals

58%

Nové Sady 3+ goals

31%

Baťov 1+ goals

73%

Baťov 2+ goals

38%

Baťov 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Nové Sady (draw refunded)

67%

Baťov (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Sady at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.46 · 82 matches

Baťov away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.13 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Sady attack 1.80 + Baťov defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.96

Baťov attack 1.16 + Nové Sady defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Nové Sady scores more

52%

level

22%

Baťov scores more

26%

Nové Sady at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nové Sady will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff