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Nové Mesto nad Váhom vs Spartak Myjava — 3. liga - West 2020

Nové Mesto nad Váhom
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
CANC
13:30
Spartak Myjava
Spartak Myjava
3/14/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 16Štadión AFC Považan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom34%
×Draw25%
Spartak Myjava41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.36
Spartak Myjava
1.50

Spartak Myjava creates 10% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 55 away

creates per match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.63
Spartak Myjava
1.47

allows per match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.54
Spartak Myjava
1.09

finishing

Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par
Spartak Myjava+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Mesto nad Váhom ↓

Spartak Myjava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nové Mesto nad Váhom or draw
59%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom or Spartak Myjava
75%
Draw or Spartak Myjava
66%

Winning margin

Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+
15%
Spartak Myjava wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals
74%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals
39%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals
16%
Spartak Myjava 1+ goals
78%
Spartak Myjava 2+ goals
44%
Spartak Myjava 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)
46%
Spartak Myjava (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Mesto nad Váhom at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

Spartak Myjava away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.09 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.63 + Spartak Myjava defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.36

Spartak Myjava attack 1.47 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more
34%
level
25%
Spartak Myjava scores more
41%

Spartak Myjava at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spartak Myjava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nové Mesto nad Váhom face Spartak Myjava (3. liga - West)

3. liga - West returns with Nové Mesto nad Váhom hosting Spartak Myjava. Match starts March 14, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Nové Mesto nad Váhom host Spartak Myjava at Štadión AFC Považan.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.