Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2–6 Sereď: Result & Stats

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

FT

2 – 6

HT: 1 – 3

Sereď

9/30/2023

3. liga - West · West - 9Štadión AFC Považan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom33%

×Draw25%

Sereď41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nové Mesto nad VáhomExpected goals in this matchSereď

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.50

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.32

Sereď

1.50

Sereď creates 14% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 46 away

1.63

creates per match

1.46

1.54

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.63

Sereď

1.46

allows per match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.54

Sereď

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par

Sereď+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Mesto nad Váhom ↓

Sereď →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Nové Mesto nad Váhom or draw

59%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom or Sereď

75%

Draw or Sereď

67%

Winning margin

Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+

15%

Sereď wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals

73%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals

38%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals

15%

Sereď 1+ goals

78%

Sereď 2+ goals

44%

Sereď 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)

45%

Sereď (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Mesto nad Váhom at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

Sereď away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.02 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.63 + Sereď defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sereď attack 1.46 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more

33%

level

25%

Sereď scores more

41%

Sereď at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sereď will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nové Mesto nad Váhom vs Sereď

Sereď beat Nové Mesto nad Váhom 6-2 in 3. liga - West on September 30, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión AFC Považan in Nové Mesto nad Váhom.

Nové Mesto nad Váhom vs Sereď — 3. liga - West 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Nové Mesto nad Váhom vs Sereď