Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2–2 Malacky: Result & Stats

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Malacky

10/28/2023

3. liga - West · West - 13Štadión AFC Považan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom43%

×Draw24%

Malacky33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nové Mesto nad VáhomExpected goals in this matchMalacky

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.36

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.58

Malacky

1.36

Nové Mesto nad Váhom creates 16% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 45 away

1.63

creates per match

1.18

1.54

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.63

Malacky

1.18

allows per match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.54

Malacky

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par

Malacky+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Mesto nad Váhom ↓

Malacky →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Nové Mesto nad Váhom or draw

67%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom or Malacky

76%

Draw or Malacky

57%

Winning margin

Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+

21%

Malacky wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals

79%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals

47%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals

21%

Malacky 1+ goals

74%

Malacky 2+ goals

39%

Malacky 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)

56%

Malacky (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Mesto nad Váhom at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

Malacky away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.63 + Malacky defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.58

Malacky attack 1.18 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more

43%

level

24%

Malacky scores more

33%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nové Mesto nad Váhom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2–2 Malacky

Nové Mesto nad Váhom and Malacky drew 2-2 in 3. liga - West on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Štadión AFC Považan in Nové Mesto nad Váhom.

Nové Mesto nad Váhom vs Malacky — 3. liga - West 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

3. liga - West: Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2–2 Malacky