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Nové Mesto nad Váhom vs Lednické Rovne — 3. liga - West 2020

Nové Mesto nad Váhom
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
CANC
14:00
Lednické Rovne
Lednické Rovne
4/25/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 22Štadión AFC Považan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom49%
×Draw24%
Lednické Rovne27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.67
Lednické Rovne
1.19

Nové Mesto nad Váhom creates 40% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 24 away

creates per match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.63
Lednické Rovne
0.83

allows per match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.54
Lednické Rovne
1.71

finishing

Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par
Lednické Rovne+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Mesto nad Váhom ↓

Lednické Rovne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nové Mesto nad Váhom or draw
73%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom or Lednické Rovne
76%
Draw or Lednické Rovne
51%

Winning margin

Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+
26%
Lednické Rovne wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals
81%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals
50%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals
23%
Lednické Rovne 1+ goals
70%
Lednické Rovne 2+ goals
33%
Lednické Rovne 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)
64%
Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Mesto nad Váhom at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

Lednické Rovne away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.63 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Lednické Rovne attack 0.83 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more
49%
level
24%
Lednické Rovne scores more
27%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nové Mesto nad Váhom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nové Mesto nad Váhom face Lednické Rovne (3. liga - West)

3. liga - West returns with Nové Mesto nad Váhom hosting Lednické Rovne. Match starts April 25, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Nové Mesto nad Váhom host Lednické Rovne at Štadión AFC Považan.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.