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Nové Mesto nad Váhom vs Kalná nad Hronom — 3. liga - West 2020

Nové Mesto nad Váhom
Nové Mesto nad Váhom
FT
0 – 0
Kalná nad Hronom
Kalná nad Hronom
10/16/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 11Štadión AFC Považan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom44%
×Draw24%
Kalná nad Hronom31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.62
Kalná nad Hronom
1.32

Nové Mesto nad Váhom creates 23% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 31 away

creates per match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.63
Kalná nad Hronom
1.10

allows per match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom
1.54
Kalná nad Hronom
1.61

finishing

Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par
Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nové Mesto nad Váhom ↓

Kalná nad Hronom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Nové Mesto nad Váhom or draw
69%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom or Kalná nad Hronom
76%
Draw or Kalná nad Hronom
56%

Winning margin

Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+
23%
Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals
80%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals
48%
Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals
22%
Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals
73%
Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals
38%
Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)
59%
Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nové Mesto nad Váhom at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 54 matches

Kalná nad Hronom away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.63 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.62

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.10 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more
44%
level
24%
Kalná nad Hronom scores more
31%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nové Mesto nad Váhom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Nové Mesto nad Váhom 0–0 Kalná nad Hronom

Nové Mesto nad Váhom and Kalná nad Hronom drew 0-0 in 3. liga - West on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión AFC Považan in Nové Mesto nad Váhom.