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Novaya Pripyat vs ML Vitebsk — Coppa 2019

Novaya Pripyat
Novaya Pripyat
FT
2 – 11
HT: 0 – 2
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
5/24/2023CoppaCoppa · 2nd RoundStadyen Stolin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Novaya Pripyat14%
×Draw13%
ML Vitebsk73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novaya Pripyat
1.75
ML Vitebsk
3.92

ML Vitebsk creates 124% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Novaya Pripyat
2.50
ML Vitebsk
4.00

allows per match

Novaya Pripyat
3.83
ML Vitebsk
1.00

finishing

Novaya Pripyat+0.00on par
ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novaya Pripyat ↓

ML Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–23%
0–34%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–37%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–25%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
80%20%4.5
63%37%

Double chance

Novaya Pripyat or draw
27%
Novaya Pripyat or ML Vitebsk
87%
Draw or ML Vitebsk
86%

Winning margin

Novaya Pripyat wins by 2+
6%
ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Novaya Pripyat 1+ goals
83%
Novaya Pripyat 2+ goals
52%
Novaya Pripyat 3+ goals
25%
ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
98%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
89%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
72%

Draw no bet

Novaya Pripyat (draw refunded)
16%
ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novaya Pripyat at home — creates 2.50, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novaya Pripyat attack 2.50 + ML Vitebsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

ML Vitebsk attack 4.00 + Novaya Pripyat defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 3.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Novaya Pripyat scores more
14%
level
13%
ML Vitebsk scores more
73%

ML Vitebsk at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coppa: Novaya Pripyat 2–11 ML Vitebsk

ML Vitebsk beat Novaya Pripyat 11-2 in Coppa on May 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadyen Stolin in Stolin.