Novara 3–0 Virtus Verona: Result & Stats

Novara

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Virtus Verona

R. Calcagni 90+2'

E. Ongaro 84', 36'

1/11/2025

League #138 · Girone A - 22Stadio Comunale Silvio Piola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Novara50%

×Draw29%

Virtus Verona21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NovaraExpected goals in this matchVirtus Verona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.74

Novara

1.29

Virtus Verona

0.74

Novara creates 74% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

1.00

creates per match

0.76

0.73

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Novara

1.00

Virtus Verona

0.76

allows per match

Novara

0.73

Virtus Verona

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Novara+0.00on par

Virtus Verona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novara ↓

Virtus Verona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Novara or draw

79%

Novara or Virtus Verona

71%

Draw or Virtus Verona

50%

Winning margin

Novara wins by 2+

23%

Virtus Verona wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Novara 1+ goals

72%

Novara 2+ goals

37%

Novara 3+ goals

14%

Virtus Verona 1+ goals

52%

Virtus Verona 2+ goals

17%

Virtus Verona 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Novara (draw refunded)

70%

Virtus Verona (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novara at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Virtus Verona away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novara attack 1.00 + Virtus Verona defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

Virtus Verona attack 0.76 + Novara defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Novara scores more

50%

level

29%

Virtus Verona scores more

21%

Novara at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Novara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

45'

60'

67'

73'

J. Gómez Taleb← G. Manfrin

73'

M. Bassi← S. Lerco

74'

F. Lorenzini

80'

L. Ghiringhelli← C. Donadio

80'

E. Owusu← L. Morosini

84'

E. Ongaro

87'

F. Toffanin

87'

C. Odogwu← M. Amadio

87'

T. Cielo← M. De Marchi

90+1'

R. Lodovici← N. Calabrese

90+2'

R. Calcagni

Novara

Virtus

55

Alfonso

11

▼

Manfrin

2

Catena

37

▼

Calabrese

10

Zarpellon

7

▼

8

5

23

14

▼

Marchi

74

▼

1

26

15

72

28

19

⚽

Calcagni

21

Ranieri

99

Basso

23

▼

Morosini

13

⚽2

Ongaro

10

▼

Donadio

Manager: G. Gattuso

80'▲L. Ghiringhelli←▼C. Donadio

80'▲E. Owusu←▼L. Morosini

Novara substitutes

24Ghiringhelli45Owusu4Cancola5Bertoncini7Gerardini12Negri17Attanasio31Desjardins44Koblar62Camolese70Manseri79Lancini90Ganz

Manager: L. Fresco

73'▲J. Gómez Taleb←▼G. Manfrin

73'▲M. Bassi←▼S. Lerco

87'▲C. Odogwu←▼M. Amadio

87'▲T. Cielo←▼M. De Marchi

90+1'▲R. Lodovici←▼N. Calabrese

Virtus Verona substitutes

21Taleb16Bassi90Odogwu75Cielo4Lodovici1Ficeli22Sibi9Contini25Filippi30Gatti32Rispoli34Ronco44Pagliuca47Cuel

League #138: Novara 3–0 Virtus Verona

Novara beat Virtus Verona 3-0 in League #138 on January 11, 2025.

Goals: E. Ongaro (36', 84'), R. Calcagni (90+2').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Silvio Piola in Novara.

Novara vs Virtus Verona — League #138 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #138: Novara 3–0 Virtus Verona