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Novaci vs Vardar Skopje — Cup 2020

Novaci
Novaci
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
9/18/2024CupCup · 1st RoundStadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Novaci2%
×Draw10%
Vardar Skopje88%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novaci
0.20
Vardar Skopje
2.60

Vardar Skopje creates 1200% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Novaci
0.00
Vardar Skopje
1.20

allows per match

Novaci
4.00
Vardar Skopje
0.40

finishing

Novaci+0.00on par
Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

83%No
  • No83
  • Yes17

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novaci ↓

Vardar Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–116%
0–221%
0–318%
0–412%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–00%
2–10%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (21%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Novaci or draw
12%
Novaci or Vardar Skopje
90%
Draw or Vardar Skopje
98%

Winning margin

Novaci wins by 2+
0%
Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
68%

Team goals

Novaci 1+ goals
18%
Novaci 2+ goals
2%
Novaci 3+ goals
0%
Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
92%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
73%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Novaci (draw refunded)
2%
Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novaci at home — creates 0.00, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novaci attack 0.00 + Vardar Skopje defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.20

Vardar Skopje attack 1.20 + Novaci defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

Novaci scores more
2%
level
10%
Vardar Skopje scores more
88%

Vardar Skopje at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Novaci 0–2 Vardar Skopje

Vardar Skopje beat Novaci 2-0 in Cup on September 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Novatsi.