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Novaci vs Teteks — Second League 2019

Novaci
Novaci
FT
2 – 3
Teteks
Teteks
4/28/2018Second LeagueSecond League · West - 24Stadion Metallurg (Novaci)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Novaci58%
×Draw21%
Teteks21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novaci
2.01
Teteks
1.12

Novaci creates 79% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 46 away

creates per match

Novaci
1.56
Teteks
1.28

allows per match

Novaci
0.96
Teteks
2.46

finishing

Novaci+0.00on par
Teteks+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novaci ↓

Teteks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Novaci or draw
79%
Novaci or Teteks
79%
Draw or Teteks
42%

Winning margin

Novaci wins by 2+
34%
Teteks wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Novaci 1+ goals
87%
Novaci 2+ goals
59%
Novaci 3+ goals
32%
Teteks 1+ goals
67%
Teteks 2+ goals
31%
Teteks 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Novaci (draw refunded)
74%
Teteks (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novaci at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

Teteks away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novaci attack 1.56 + Teteks defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.01

Teteks attack 1.28 + Novaci defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Novaci scores more
58%
level
21%
Teteks scores more
21%

Novaci at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Novaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Novaci 2–3 Teteks

Teteks beat Novaci 3-2 in Second League on April 28, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg (Novaci).