Novaci 2–0 Aresimi: Result & Stats | Second League

Novaci

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Aresimi

8/12/2023

Second League · Round 1Stadion pod Tumbe Kafe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Novaci41%

×Draw26%

Aresimi33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NovaciExpected goals in this matchAresimi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.23

Novaci

1.40

Aresimi

1.23

Novaci creates 14% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 45 away

1.56

creates per match

1.49

0.96

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Novaci

1.56

Aresimi

1.49

allows per match

Novaci

0.96

Aresimi

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Novaci+0.00on par

Aresimi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novaci ↓

Aresimi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Novaci or draw

67%

Novaci or Aresimi

74%

Draw or Aresimi

59%

Winning margin

Novaci wins by 2+

19%

Aresimi wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Novaci 1+ goals

75%

Novaci 2+ goals

41%

Novaci 3+ goals

17%

Aresimi 1+ goals

71%

Aresimi 2+ goals

35%

Aresimi 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Novaci (draw refunded)

55%

Aresimi (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novaci at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

Aresimi away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novaci attack 1.56 + Aresimi defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.40

Aresimi attack 1.49 + Novaci defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Novaci scores more

41%

level

26%

Aresimi scores more

33%

Novaci at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Novaci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff