Nova Venécia 3–1 Caldense: Result & Stats | Serie D

Nova Venécia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Caldense

Caio Monteiro 62'

Arthur Martins 57'

Max Miller 56'

Juninho 16'

5/22/2022

Serie D · 1st Phase - 6Estádio Municipal Zenor Pedrosa Rocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Nova Venécia51%

×Draw24%

Caldense25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nova VenéciaExpected goals in this matchCaldense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.13

Nova Venécia

1.70

Caldense

1.13

Nova Venécia creates 50% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 28 away

1.78

creates per match

1.14

1.11

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Nova Venécia

1.78

Caldense

1.14

allows per match

Nova Venécia

1.11

Caldense

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nova Venécia+0.00on par

Caldense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nova Venécia ↓

Caldense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Nova Venécia or draw

75%

Nova Venécia or Caldense

76%

Draw or Caldense

49%

Winning margin

Nova Venécia wins by 2+

27%

Caldense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nova Venécia 1+ goals

82%

Nova Venécia 2+ goals

51%

Nova Venécia 3+ goals

24%

Caldense 1+ goals

68%

Caldense 2+ goals

31%

Caldense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Nova Venécia (draw refunded)

67%

Caldense (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nova Venécia at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Caldense away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nova Venécia attack 1.78 + Caldense defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.70

Caldense attack 1.14 + Nova Venécia defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nova Venécia scores more

51%

level

24%

Caldense scores more

25%

Nova Venécia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nova Venécia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Juninho

32'

Odilávio← Ian Rodrigues

56'

Matheus Firmino← Odilávio

56'

57'

62'

63'

75'

Ryan Justino← Henrique Caivano

83'

Maicon← Arthur Martins

83'

Wesley← Caio Monteiro

83'

Steylon Kaique← Juninho

Nova

Caldense

Leonardo

Sousa

▼

Ribeiro

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Martins

⚽

▼

Monteiro

Carvalho

Manager: Cassio Barros

32'▲Odilávio←▼Ian Rodrigues

56'▲Matheus Firmino←▼Odilávio

83'▲Maicon←▼Arthur Martins

83'▲Wesley←▼Caio Monteiro

Nova Venécia substitutes

OdilávioFirminoMaiconWesleyPauloMorbeckLucasMexicanoNicolasBettim

Manager: Vagner

63'▲Nathan←▼Caio Ribeiro

75'▲Ryan Justino←▼Henrique Caivano

83'▲Steylon Kaique←▼Juninho

Caldense substitutes

NathanJustinoKaiqueAltizaniGuilhermeGoesKleberGaldinoNicholasAlves