Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nova Mutum EC vs União Rondonópolis — League #630 2026

Nova Mutum EC
Nova Mutum EC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
União Rondonópolis
União Rondonópolis
1/31/2024League #630League #630 · 1st Round - 4Estádio Valdir Doilho Wons

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nova Mutum EC30%
×Draw31%
União Rondonópolis39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nova Mutum EC
0.89
União Rondonópolis
1.06

União Rondonópolis creates 19% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

creates per match

Nova Mutum EC
1.11
União Rondonópolis
1.00

allows per match

Nova Mutum EC
1.11
União Rondonópolis
0.67

finishing

Nova Mutum EC+0.00on par
União Rondonópolis+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nova Mutum EC ↓

União Rondonópolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nova Mutum EC or draw
61%
Nova Mutum EC or União Rondonópolis
69%
Draw or União Rondonópolis
70%

Winning margin

Nova Mutum EC wins by 2+
10%
União Rondonópolis wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nova Mutum EC 1+ goals
59%
Nova Mutum EC 2+ goals
22%
Nova Mutum EC 3+ goals
6%
União Rondonópolis 1+ goals
65%
União Rondonópolis 2+ goals
29%
União Rondonópolis 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nova Mutum EC (draw refunded)
43%
União Rondonópolis (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nova Mutum EC at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

União Rondonópolis away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nova Mutum EC attack 1.11 + União Rondonópolis defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.89

União Rondonópolis attack 1.00 + Nova Mutum EC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nova Mutum EC scores more
30%
level
31%
União Rondonópolis scores more
39%

União Rondonópolis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "União Rondonópolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nova Mutum EC vs União Rondonópolis

União Rondonópolis beat Nova Mutum EC 1-0 in League #630 on January 31, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Valdir Doilho Wons in Nova Mutum, Mato Grosso.