Nova Mutum EC 0–2 Uberlandia: Result & Stats

Nova Mutum EC

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Uberlandia

Felipe Pará 68'

Daniel 64'

9/19/2021

Serie D · Round of 32Estádio Valdir Doilho Wons

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Nova Mutum EC39%

×Draw31%

Uberlandia30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nova Mutum ECExpected goals in this matchUberlandia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.89

Nova Mutum EC

1.06

Uberlandia

0.89

Nova Mutum EC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 29 away

1.13

creates per match

1.28

0.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Nova Mutum EC

1.13

Uberlandia

1.28

allows per match

Nova Mutum EC

0.50

Uberlandia

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nova Mutum EC+0.00on par

Uberlandia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nova Mutum EC ↓

Uberlandia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Nova Mutum EC or draw

70%

Nova Mutum EC or Uberlandia

69%

Draw or Uberlandia

61%

Winning margin

Nova Mutum EC wins by 2+

15%

Uberlandia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nova Mutum EC 1+ goals

65%

Nova Mutum EC 2+ goals

29%

Nova Mutum EC 3+ goals

9%

Uberlandia 1+ goals

59%

Uberlandia 2+ goals

22%

Uberlandia 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nova Mutum EC (draw refunded)

57%

Uberlandia (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nova Mutum EC at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Uberlandia away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nova Mutum EC attack 1.13 + Uberlandia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Uberlandia attack 1.28 + Nova Mutum EC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nova Mutum EC scores more

39%

level

31%

Uberlandia scores more

30%

Nova Mutum EC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nova Mutum EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Pedro Vitor← Ingro

58'

Daniel← Alípio

64'

Daniel

67'

Wandinho← Bruno Domingues

68'

Felipe Pará

74'

Luanderson← Daniel Costa

82'

89'

Cadinho← Leo Campos

90+4'

Diego Augusto← Hugo

90'

Mateus Mendes← Felipe Pará

90'

Rafael← Nailson

Nova

Uberlandia

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Dema

67'▲Wandinho←▼Bruno Domingues

89'▲Cadinho←▼Leo Campos

90+4'▲Diego Augusto←▼Hugo

Nova Mutum EC substitutes

WandinhoCadinhoAugustoJuninhoMocAugustoMaranhãoHenriqueQuintanilhaRafinhaGottemsJô

Manager: Chiquinho Lima

46'▲Pedro Vitor←▼Ingro

58'▲Daniel←▼Alípio

74'▲Luanderson←▼Daniel Costa

90'▲Mateus Mendes←▼Felipe Pará

90'▲Rafael←▼Nailson

Uberlandia substitutes

VitorDanielLuandersonMendesRafaelGeorgeMárcio