Nova Mutum EC 2–0 Jaraguá EC: Result & Stats

Nova Mutum EC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Jaraguá EC

Felipe Oliveira 83'

Hugo 29'

6/13/2021

Serie D · Round 2Estádio Valdir Doilho Wons

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Nova Mutum EC63%

×Draw26%

Jaraguá EC11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nova Mutum ECExpected goals in this matchJaraguá EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.46

Nova Mutum EC

1.50

Jaraguá EC

0.46

Nova Mutum EC creates 226% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.13

creates per match

0.43

0.50

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Nova Mutum EC

1.13

Jaraguá EC

0.43

allows per match

Nova Mutum EC

0.50

Jaraguá EC

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nova Mutum EC+0.00on par

Jaraguá EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nova Mutum EC ↓

Jaraguá EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Nova Mutum EC or draw

89%

Nova Mutum EC or Jaraguá EC

74%

Draw or Jaraguá EC

37%

Winning margin

Nova Mutum EC wins by 2+

34%

Jaraguá EC wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Nova Mutum EC 1+ goals

78%

Nova Mutum EC 2+ goals

44%

Nova Mutum EC 3+ goals

19%

Jaraguá EC 1+ goals

37%

Jaraguá EC 2+ goals

8%

Jaraguá EC 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Nova Mutum EC (draw refunded)

85%

Jaraguá EC (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nova Mutum EC at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Jaraguá EC away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nova Mutum EC attack 1.13 + Jaraguá EC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

Jaraguá EC attack 0.43 + Nova Mutum EC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Nova Mutum EC scores more

63%

level

26%

Jaraguá EC scores more

11%

Nova Mutum EC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Nova Mutum EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Hugo

57'

Felipe Oliveira← Rafinha

71'

Higor← Matheus Vieira

74'

Danilo← Murilo

76'

Abner← Hugo

76'

Allan Cristian← Cabeça

83'

Felipe Oliveira

Nova

Jaraguá

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Hugo

Manager: Dema

57'▲Felipe Oliveira←▼Rafinha

71'▲Higor←▼Matheus Vieira

76'▲Abner←▼Hugo

76'▲Allan Cristian←▼Cabeça

Nova Mutum EC substitutes

OliveiraHigorAbnerCristianCadinhoAugustoVictorQuintanilhaSimõesGottemsAugustoWinicius

Manager: Estevão

74'▲Danilo←▼Murilo

Jaraguá EC substitutes

DaniloJohnathanDouglasEduardoViniciusLeoMarquinhos