Nova Mutum EC 1–0 Aparecidense: Result & Stats

Nova Mutum EC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Aparecidense

Saulo 88'

9/4/2021

Serie D · Round 14Estádio Valdir Doilho Wons

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Nova Mutum EC40%

×Draw31%

Aparecidense29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nova Mutum ECExpected goals in this matchAparecidense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.85

Nova Mutum EC

1.06

Aparecidense

0.85

Nova Mutum EC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 41 away

1.13

creates per match

1.20

0.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Nova Mutum EC

1.13

Aparecidense

1.20

allows per match

Nova Mutum EC

0.50

Aparecidense

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nova Mutum EC+0.00on par

Aparecidense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nova Mutum EC ↓

Aparecidense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Nova Mutum EC or draw

71%

Nova Mutum EC or Aparecidense

69%

Draw or Aparecidense

60%

Winning margin

Nova Mutum EC wins by 2+

16%

Aparecidense wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nova Mutum EC 1+ goals

65%

Nova Mutum EC 2+ goals

29%

Nova Mutum EC 3+ goals

9%

Aparecidense 1+ goals

57%

Aparecidense 2+ goals

21%

Aparecidense 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nova Mutum EC (draw refunded)

58%

Aparecidense (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nova Mutum EC at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Aparecidense away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nova Mutum EC attack 1.13 + Aparecidense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Aparecidense attack 1.20 + Nova Mutum EC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nova Mutum EC scores more

40%

level

31%

Aparecidense scores more

29%

Nova Mutum EC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nova Mutum EC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

Wesley← Elias

65'

Filipe Trindade← Wesley

84'

Cadinho← Higor

84'

Gustavinho← Samuel

84'

Lucas Negueba← Gilvan

88'

Saulo

90'

Diego Augusto← Hugo

90+2'

Matheus Henrique← Felipe Oliveira

Nova

Aparecidense

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Dema

84'▲Cadinho←▼Higor

90'▲Diego Augusto←▼Hugo

90+2'▲Matheus Henrique←▼Felipe Oliveira

Nova Mutum EC substitutes

CadinhoAugustoHenriqueNogyJuninhoGottemsFrancisco

Manager: Thiago Carvalho

58'▲Wesley←▼Elias

65'▲Filipe Trindade←▼Wesley

84'▲Gustavinho←▼Samuel

84'▲Lucas Negueba←▼Gilvan

Aparecidense substitutes

WesleyTrindadeGustavinhoNeguebaTelesHugoVinicius