Nova Iguaçu 0–1 Internacional SC: Result & Stats

Nova Iguaçu

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Internacional SC

4/28/2018

Serie D · Round 2Estádio Jânio de Moraes (Nova Iguaçu, Rio de Janeiro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nova Iguaçu59%

×Draw25%

Internacional SC16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nova IguaçuExpected goals in this matchInternacional SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.69

Nova Iguaçu

1.59

Internacional SC

0.69

Nova Iguaçu creates 130% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 4 away

1.18

creates per match

0.50

0.87

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Nova Iguaçu

1.18

Internacional SC

0.50

allows per match

Nova Iguaçu

0.87

Internacional SC

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nova Iguaçu+0.00on par

Internacional SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nova Iguaçu ↓

Internacional SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nova Iguaçu or draw

84%

Nova Iguaçu or Internacional SC

75%

Draw or Internacional SC

41%

Winning margin

Nova Iguaçu wins by 2+

32%

Internacional SC wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Nova Iguaçu 1+ goals

80%

Nova Iguaçu 2+ goals

47%

Nova Iguaçu 3+ goals

21%

Internacional SC 1+ goals

50%

Internacional SC 2+ goals

15%

Internacional SC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Nova Iguaçu (draw refunded)

79%

Internacional SC (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nova Iguaçu at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.87 · 38 matches

Internacional SC away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nova Iguaçu attack 1.18 + Internacional SC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Internacional SC attack 0.50 + Nova Iguaçu defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Nova Iguaçu scores more

59%

level

25%

Internacional SC scores more

16%

Nova Iguaçu at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Nova Iguaçu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff